[Steel "Cai" said] During the Spring Festival, the increase in inventories rose sharply, and the global economic recovery is expected to support steel prices

According to statistics from Mysteel and Xinhua Finance and Economics, as of February 18, 2021, the country’s major steel social stocks were 18.0153 million tons, an increase of 4.4144 million tons over the pre-holiday period and an increase of 7.8697 million tons over the same period last month; An increase of 2.7727 million tons before the holiday.

The inventory of five major varieties this week was 27,889,900 tons. In the same period of last year's lunar calendar (January 31, 2020, the seventh day of the first month), the total inventory of the five major varieties was 23,337,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.5291 million tons, an increase of 37%, and a year-on-year increase of 4.5521 million. Tons, an increase of 19.5%. On the whole, the reduction in the flow of people during the Spring Festival this time is conducive to the arrival of resources to the market, so there is a significant increase in inventory after the holiday. From the perspective of total inventory, consumption expectations in 2021 are relatively optimistic compared to the previous two years. In addition, the impact of logistics factors on inventory during the Spring Festival is significantly smaller than in previous years. The total off-balance sheet inventory is estimated to be less than the same period in previous years. It is expected that there is still room for increase in inventory in the later period but the total amount is limited.

Xinhua Index analysts believe that in the context of a significant slowdown in terminal demand during the Spring Festival, the expansion of the steel factory inventory and social inventory in this period is in line with expectations. During the Spring Festival, the number of new confirmed cases of new crowns in the world maintained a downward trend. At the same time, the Federal Reserve decided to pass a budget plan of 1.9 trillion US dollars. The market’s expectations of the global economic recovery have been further strengthened. The prices of global bulk industrial products have risen sharply. It is expected that the domestic market will be affected to a certain extent in the later period. Steel prices have a positive effect.

(Remarks: The total social stock of steel in this article = 35 cities threaded stock + 35 cities wire rod stock + 33 cities hot rolled stock + 23 cities cold rolled stock + 31 city plate stocks)

Figure Changes in inventory of major steel products and major regions across the country

During the Spring Festival